As I posted last week, Apple is holding another virtual event on Tuesday, October 13th at 10 a.m. Pacific Time. The iPhone announcements are the most anticipated each year. Even though Apple is attempting to get have a larger portion of its revenues from services, the lion’s share of revenue is still from hardware, specifically the iPhone. Here is what I think we will see at the October 13th, event. I am going to do something a bit different this time. Instead of giving my likelihoods throughout the post, I will just provide a recap at the end.
I think there will be four iPhones, and iPhone 12 Mini, iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Pro, and iPhone 12 Pro Max. Here is what I think each will break down to.
iPhone 12 mini
This will be the rumored a 5.4-inch model but it will not be available for pre-order until later. It’ll come in the same sizes as the iPhone 11, meaning 64GB, 128GB, and 256GB variants. I think we will see a different color for these models as compared to last year. The big question for this is the pricing, and I am going to agree with the rumors of $699 as the starting price, with $749 for the 128GB, and $799 for the 256GB model.
The iPhone 12 will likely replace the existing iPhone 11 and being in the same sizes and colors and the iPhone 12 Mini. I think the pre-orders will be on October 16th, and available the following week. I think the pricing may increase a bit to $749 instead of the current $699 for the iPhone 11. I am guessing the screen size on this model will be 6.1-inches, just like the current iPhone 11.
iPhone 12 Pro
I think the iPhone 12 Pro will be similar to the iPhone 11 Pro, in that it starts at $999, comes in four colors, with the Midnight Green model being replaced with a dark metallic blue similar to the other iPhone 11 colors. Just like the iPhone 12, I think this model will be available for pre-order on the 16th and available the following week. One change that I think will happen with this model is that the base storage will increase to 128GB, up from 64GB with the iPhone 11 Pro. I predict that the screen size will be 6.1 inches on this model. I think the iPhone 12 Pro will have LiDAR capabilities. It seems odd to have it only on the iPad Pro, but having it on the iPhone Pro lineup is likely.
iPhone 12 Pro Max
The iPhone 12 Pro Max will be a behemoth at a whopping 6.7-inch screen, which is slightly bigger than the 6.5-inch screen the iPhone 11 Pro Max. I think the storage sizes will be the same as the iPhone 12 Pro at 128GB, 256GB, and 512GB with the pricing being the same as the iPhone 11 Pro Max at $1099, $1249, and $1449 respectively. As with the other models, I think this will have 5G capabilities. I also think this will be later than the other models and not available for pre-order until November with a ship date of one week after pre-orders. Just like the iPhone 12 Pro, I think it will include a LiDAR sensor.
I am giving the probability of Apple announcing four new phone models at 100%. I give the probability of all models having 5G at 90%. I am giving screen size probabilities at 100%, if all four are announced. I am predicting that the Midnight Green on the iPhone Pro line will be replaced with a Blue, the same shade as the Blue Series 6 Apple Watch. I am giving the new color a 95% chance of happening.
There have been rumors sailing around for a while indicating that Apple has been working on a new smaller HomePod. I think we will finally see this at the October event. I think this will be a somewhat competitive price for the HomePod. The current large HomePod costs $299. I think Apple is going to be aggressive with this and have this at $99. I think this is for a couple of reasons. First, $99 is a lot easier for many to justify. Secondly, the $99 price point will make it quite easy to add another HomePod mini to create a stereo pair.
I am guessing that this will be announced but will not be available for pre-order until November and it will be available in two colors, Black and White.
I think there will be two other announcements as well.
The first of these is an order date and availability date for the 10.9-inch iPad Air. The iPad Air was announced at the September event with an “Available in October” date. It is now October. I would not be surprised if this was available for order on the 13th, with it starting to arrive on October 16th.
The second announcement will be a Big Sur release date. We know it is coming, but we are not sure when. It is possible that Apple will wait and have the release date be the same time as the Macs with Apple Silicon, but I think Apple needs to announce a date for Big Sur sooner rather than later.
Here is a recap of what I am predicting for the October 13th event.
- iPad Air order date – 100%
- iPad Air release date – 100%
- iPhone 12 mini – 100%
- iPhone 12 – 100%
- iPhone 12 Pro – 100%
- iPhone 12 Pro Max – 100%
- iPhone 12 mini screen at 5.4 inches – 100%
- iPhone 12 screen at 6.1 inches – 100%
- iPhone 12 Pro screen at 6.1 inches – 100%
- iPhone 12 Pro Max screen at 6.7 inches – 100%
- iPhone 12 Pro new blue color – 95%
- iPhone 12 Pro Pro new blue color – 95%
- All four models having 5G – 90%
- HomePod mini – 90%
- HomePod mini available in November – 90%
- HomePod mini for $99 – 90%
- Big Sur release date – 90%
The “Hi, Speed” announcement starts at 10a.m. on Tuesday, October 13th. Like usual, I will have a recap of what was announced and later in the week I will have a recap of how well I did with my predictions.